The Road Ahead

Are we looking at a replay of the Great Depression’s banking crises?

Whether the Feds come to the aid of AIG, this is the kind of environment we see around market bottoms. Panicked investors hear breathless reports of a financial meltdown and wonder if their money is safe. The short answer is that nothing is absolutely safe. The longer answer is that the health of any portfolio is tied to the health of the economy.

And while the economy is slowing, it’s not collapsing. We’ve had some bad economic reports the past several weeks, but the market’s volatility is more associated with the excessive leverage that the investment banks took on during the good times. But away from New York, business is getting done.

So while we’re concerned, we’re not worried. Markets always go down before they go up again. And in the long run, this fluctuation will look like fly-specks on a mirror.


Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
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