The Signal and The Noise (Part 2)

By | 2017-07-17T12:21:17+00:00 June 13th, 2017|Global Market Update|

How can we tell what’s really happening? Great Circus Parade, Milwaukee, WI. Photo: Royal Broil. Source: Wikipedia When the newsreels stop rolling and the microphones go away, we’re sometimes left with the impression that a circus parade just rolled by. Did anything actually change, or did we just see a cavalcade of horses, camels, and clowns roll down Main Street? We’ve heard about news stories with an underlying agenda too many times. When we read any important news item, something that always changes is [...]

Investing in Quality

By | 2017-07-17T12:22:07+00:00 March 3rd, 2016|Global Market Update|

Investing in Quality What makes the market shine? Photo: Ivan Melanchthon Serrano. Source: Morguefile Over time, companies earn profits. Good companies earn consistent, growing profits in both good times and bad. The profits don’t necessarily grow every year—after all, if you sell oil and the price of oil falls 80%, your margin has to fall. But a managers can still earn a profit, because they haven’t bet the ranch on a the future price of a volatile commodity. Investors pay for the rights to [...]

Not So Sweet

By | 2017-07-17T12:22:22+00:00 November 3rd, 2015|Global Market Update|

What’s happening to Candy Crush? Photo: EJ Augsburg Source: Pixabay King Digital, the maker of Candy Crush and other addictive mobile games, is being acquired for $18 per share in cash by Activision Blizzard, a mainly PC-based game maker, perhaps best known for Call of Duty and its multi-player online game, World of Warcraft. That’s a 20% premium from where King opened yesterday. Investors should be happy. After all, back in September the stock was a lot lower. King’s mobile games were on the [...]

Fear, Greed, and Complacency

By | 2014-06-11T09:51:08+00:00 June 11th, 2014|Global Market Update|

Are we near a market top? With the Dow nearing 17,000 and measures of volume and volatility fairly low, many folks are saying that the end of the five-year bull run is near. It’s true that valuations are stretched. The US stock market has nearly tripled since 2009. It’s also true that sentiment indicators show that market bears are harder to find than beach bums in a tuxedo store. But discerning the top of a bull market isn’t like looking at the top of [...]

Shoe-shines and Wunderkinds

By | 2013-03-18T09:55:34+00:00 March 18th, 2013|Global Market Update|

Have we reached the silly season? The news is filled with movie starlets discovering the stock market and 16 year-old actresses day-trading from their iPhones. Are these signs of a bubble? An old market saying goes, “When even shoeshine boys are giving stock tips, it’s time to sell.” The market is a discounting mechanism that incorporates not only the latest news, but our sentiments about the news. So big, emotional events like Pearl Harbor, 9/11, Neil Armstrong’s walk on the moon, or the Lehman [...]