The Dragon and the Bear

By |2017-07-17T12:34:19+00:00April 22nd, 2014|Global Market Update|

Could China reconcile with Russia? The crisis in Crimea and Ukraine seems to have had little impact on the markets. Germany, the European economy most closely affected by what happens in Russia, has seen its stock market hover near its all-time highs. German newspapers have more coverage of Edward Snowden and the NSA revelations than they do of the military upheaval close to their borders. The markets seem to have concluded that Ukraine is not that important. But the confrontation may have implications with [...]

Crimean Crimes?

By |2014-03-05T11:36:07+00:00March 5th, 2014|Global Market Update|

Why do we care about the Crimea? Like many people, I grew up with a vague sense that the Crimea was an obscure piece of land somewhere in eastern Europe, and that is was most famous for being the occasion for the “Charge of the Light Brigade” that Tennyson immortalized in his poem. The point of the poem, as I recall, was that hundreds of lives were wasted in a dramatic military action because “someone had blundered.” Now it looks like a repeat is [...]

Exceptional Reflections

By |2013-09-17T09:59:54+00:00September 17th, 2013|Global Market Update|

Is America exceptional? Last week’s spectacle of Russia’s President writing an op-ed in the New York Times chiding Americans was surreal. Especially when he all but quoted the Declaration of Independence to admonish us for considering America as exceptional. What’s going on? Apart from the irony of seeing our former Cold War antagonist lecture Americans on American values, does he have a point? Is it truly dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional? I would submit that it depends on what the [...]

A Russian Moment?

By |2019-02-20T12:57:19+00:00August 19th, 2011|Global Market Update|

Are we facing a Russia-moment? On August 17, 1998 the Russian government devalued the ruble, defaulted on domestic debt, and declared a moratorium on payment to foreign creditors. By October the stock market had fallen over 20% from its high and the 10-year US Treasury market had rallied about 1 ½ percent. […]