As Time Goes By – Technology and Emerging Markets

By | 2017-07-17T12:21:22+00:00 April 14th, 2017|Global Market Update|

Technology advances are swift in the emerging markets. Photo: David Wilson. Source: Wikipedia The Templeton Emerging Markets Group recently noted the evolving make-up of the emerging market technology sector. In theory, an emerging market is an economy in transition from state controlled to one with increasing economic freedom. Along comes integration in the global marketplace and greater standards of living. A more familiar imagining of the emerging market is one of extraction: both of resources (commodities and labor) and cheap, manufactured goods. Global investment [...]

Emerging Where?

By | 2017-07-17T12:21:37+00:00 November 15th, 2016|Global Market Update|

What’s happening in emerging markets? Souk in Rabat, Morocco. Photo: Cloudzilla. Source: Wikipedia For much of 2016, emerging markets have performed well. Higher oil prices and a steady dollar have allowed these markets to stabilize and even do slightly better as the year progressed. But the election of Donald Trump and Republican majorities in both houses of Congress on November 8 may represent a pivot point. There is potential for significant fiscal stimulus, protectionist trade policies, and a different outlook for interest rates by [...]

Emerging To …

By | 2017-07-17T12:22:39+00:00 September 10th, 2015|Global Market Update|

Emerging From … What’s happening with emerging economies? Country size weighted by projected population in 2050. Source: Worldmapper.org It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The developing economies were supposed to lead the markets higher. The combination of population growth and development economics should have provided a turbo-shot to older, mature, slow-growing developed economies. Bringing subsistence farmers into cities to work in factories has been a time-honored development formula. Increased productivity raises profits and provides higher wages, lifting the entire economy. Every emerging economy [...]

The Year of the Horse

By | 2017-07-17T12:34:22+00:00 February 10th, 2014|Global Market Update|

Happy New Year! I’m not late by 2+ months. We’re in the middle of the Chinese Spring Festival, that celebration of good fortune, wealth, and happiness that runs from the end of the last month of their year to the middle of the first month. Because the Chinese calendar is based on both the moon and the sun, the timing of their New Year shifts around, kind of like Easter. The celebration is thousands of years old, and is marked by family reunions, parades, [...]

Groundhog Day?

By | 2014-02-03T10:51:09+00:00 February 3rd, 2014|Global Market Update|

Are the markets melting down from the bottom up? Again? Those of us who have been in the market for a couple decades may be having a sense of déjà vu. We remember this movie. In 1998 cash shortages in some emerging markets led to capital flight which led to currency issues which led to ratings problems which led to a run on the global financial infrastructure. A small hedge fund with a couple of Nobel laureates on staff had a couple trillion dollars [...]

Emerging Issues

By | 2014-01-29T11:06:10+00:00 January 29th, 2014|Global Market Update|

It’s the end of January and global markets are shifting. In the US and Europe, the stock markets have pulled back 2-3% after a very strong 2013. But emerging markets are down almost 10% after last year’s lackluster returns. What’s going on? When the Fed announced last June that they were ready to slow the expansion of their balance sheet, emerging markets balked. They had grown accustomed to massive cash-flows from the developed world. With the Fed signaling that the era of ultra-easy money [...]