Structure, Schmucture

By |2017-07-17T12:34:54+00:00May 15th, 2012|Global Market Update, Recession|

Where have all the jobs gone?There’s a cottage industry growing up around the question as to whether current unemployment is cyclical or structural. That is, whether it represents a short-term consumer-based pullback in aggregate demand, or whether it comes from a mismatch between labor skills and the kinds of jobs employers want to fill right now. With over 88 million people not in the labor force, it’s an important question.It’s important because of the policy implications. […]

A Population Bomb?

By |2012-02-09T11:13:02+00:00February 9th, 2012|Global Market Update, New Markets|

Are demographics destiny?That’s what a couple of researchers sought to find out. Using UN population numbers and economic and capital market data, they looked at 60 years worth of information in 176 countries. Because demographic data are fairly predictable and individual behavior follows a life-cycle pattern of education, production, saving, and retirement, they attempted to fit a mathematical function  to see what the next ten years might look like for different regions of the world.What did they find? […]