When I was in school, it was a commonly assumed that overpopulation was humanity’s greatest risk. Now, it seems, that assumption has been turned on its head.
Over the next 40 years, demographers estimate that the US population will grow by another 100 million. This population will be young and energetic, with only a quarter over 60. Our 2.6% annual growth will be partly driven by a higher birth rate, but also by immigration. America remains a melting-pot, attracting the best and the brightest from around the world.
Another country that can benefit from this demographic boom is India. In a region where the population is rapidly aging, India is bucking the trend. Only 5% of their citizens are over 65, in contrast with Japan, where over 20% are older. While the US may excel in conceiving and designing elegant products, someone has to assemble them. Increasingly, India’s youth will be seen as a strength.
30 years ago Julian Simon dubbed the human spirit “The Ultimate Resource.” In the coming decades, the countries that nurture and develop this spirit will continue to grow.
Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
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