I thought the recession was over.
With all the euphoric news and the stock market 40% above its lows, you might think that. After all, company profits are higher than expected, and real estate shows signs of bottoming. But we’re not out of the woods yet.
The latest retail sales data show that rising unemployment is weighing on consumer purchases. And mortgage data now show that one mortgage loan in four is 30 days late or more. As people lose their jobs, they curb their spending and get behind on their loans.
That doesn’t mean the market has rallied irrationally. After all, when the S&P was flirting with an intra-day low of 666, many were looking into the Pit and seeing their doom. We’ve pulled back from those dark days. But it’s not all sunshine and roses. Before we get out of the woods, consumers have to get through the unemployment swamp.
Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
Hit reply if you have any questions—I read them all!
Follow me on Twitter @GlobalMarketUpd