Bay of Pigs

Just what the economy doesn’t need: a major health threat.

So far, the swine-flu outbreak has been fairly mild, with about 1600 cases reported in Mexico, but spring-break trips may have transported the virus to the US, Israel, and even New Zealand.

Last year a World Bank report claimed that a pandemic could cost the global economy $3 trillion and could trim 5% from global growth. For what it’s worth, the IMF predicts a 1% economic decline this year. A 6% global decline would be a disaster.

While it’s likely that the IMF report is too gloomy, a global pandemic would certainly hurt. So what are its chances? Health-care surveillance has advanced tremendously in recent years, especially in light of the bird-flu dress-rehearsal of a couple years ago. My Impression is that our health-preparedness is good. But that does preclude a “Bay-of-Pigs” like problem.

Douglas R. Tengdin, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
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By | 2014-09-04T18:18:03+00:00 April 28th, 2009|Global Market Update|0 Comments

About the Author:

Mr. Tengdin is the Chief Investment Officer at Charter Trust Company and author of “The Global Market Update”. The audio version of each post can be heard on radio stations throughout New England every weekday. Mr. Tengdin graduated from Dartmouth College, Magna Cum Laude. He received his Master of Arts from Trinity Divinity School, Magna Cum Laude and received his Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation in 1992. Mr. Tengdin has been managing investment portfolios for over 30 years, working for Bank of Boston, State Street Global Advisors, Citibank – Tunisia, and Banknorth Group. Throughout his career, Mr. Tengdin has emphasized helping clients manage their financial risks in difficult environments where they can profit from investing in diverse assets in diverse settings. –
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